INTRODUCTION

In recent years fish production from aquaculture, or fish farming, rose substantially to establish a world wide industry that has become the world’s fastest growing food production sector. While aquaculture has reached its limits in some areas, but on a global basis it is continuing to grow and is maintaining continuous and sustainable overall annual growth. Aquaculture has become more than just a subject of experimentation and research oriented. It is an industry which is considered a producer of high quality and healthy food that can cater for various levels of the population’s ability to purchase. Also in the light of the growing prices of other animal proteins, aquaculture has become an industry of strategic importance to many countries. This growth, which is expected to continue for sometime to come, albeit unequally in continents, regions or individual countries and at a rate higher than that of world population growth, the question is asked if aquaculture could satisfy the growing demand for seafood. This article provides an attempt to answer this question.

THE STATE OF FISHERIES RESOURCES

The preliminary FAO estimates for global capture fisheries production reached 93.8 million tonnes in 2005. Aquaculture however, reached in the same year an estimated 47.8 million tonnes making world total of landings to reach a record 141.6 million tonnes. While world capture fisheries production has been relatively stable in the past decade and facing a number of constraints, aquaculture continues to grow more rapidly than all other animal food-producing sectors, with an average annual growth rate for the world of 8.8 percent per year since 1970, compared with only 1.2 percent for capture fisheries and 2.8 percent for terrestrial farmed meat production systems. However, there are signs that the rate of growth for global aquaculture may have peaked, although high growth rates may continue for some regions and species.

During the past three decades, the number of fishermen and aquaculturists has grown faster than the world’s population, and faster than employment in traditional agriculture. In 2004, an estimated 41 million people worked as fishermen and fish farmers, the great majority of these in developing countries, principally in Asia. Significant increases in most recent decades, particularly in Asia, are a result of the strong expansion of aquaculture activities. In 2004, fish farmers accounted for one-quarter of the total number of fish workers in the primary sector.

Total world trade in fish and fishery products reached a record value of US$71.5 billion (export value) in 2004, representing a 23 percent growth relative to 2000. Preliminary estimates for 2005 indicate a further increase in the value of fishery exports. In real terms (adjusted for inflation), exports of fish and fishery products increased by 17.3 percent during the period 2000-04. In terms of quantity, exports in live-weight-equivalent terms in 2004 accounted for 38 percent of total fisheries and aquaculture production, confirming fish as one of the most highly traded food and feed commodities.

GLOBAL SUPPLY

World aquaculture (food fish and aquatic plants) has grown significantly during the past half-century. The contribution of aquaculture to global supplies of fish and other aquatic animals continues to grow from a production of below 1 million tonnes in the early 1950s, increasing from 3.9 percent of total production by weight in 1970 to 27.1 in 2000 and 34.1 percent in 2005. In 2005, countries in the Asia and Pacific region accounted for 91.5 percent of the production quantity and 80.5 percent of the value. China is reported to have produced 32.4 million tonnes in 2005 which accounts to more than 67.4 percent of the total quantity and 51.2 percent of the total value of global aquaculture production.

Capture fisheries and aquaculture supplied the world about 107.2 million tonnes of seafood in 2005, providing an apparent per capita supply of 16.6 kg. (live weight equivalent), which is the highest on record. Of this total aquaculture accounted for 45 percent. Outside China, per capita supply has shown a modest growth of about 0.4 percent per year since 1992, as growth in supply from aquaculture more than offset the effects of static capture fishery production and a rising population.

In order to boost seafood supplies, it is seems unlikely, except in some specific areas in Asian fishing waters to increase marine capture fisheries unless serious decisions are taken that would lead to the recovery of stocks. Also, inland fisheries have some potential through stock enhancement practices in some countries in Asia and South America.

Aquaculture, however, seems to have the potential. Given the present growth rates in the main producing countries, the supply would require a continuous growth rate at not less than 4-5 percent at global level. However, this would not take into account the growth needs of individual countries nor the limited amount of trade of aquaculture products. Countries like China with present trend in production could surpass their requirements. It remains to be seen whether scarcity in other countries is going to lead to increase exports to expand supply.

POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS

United Nations population database indicates that the world population in 2000 has reached 6.1 billion people and that it was growing annually at an average of 1.2 percent. In 2005 the population reached 6.5 billion people which it is expected to grow to 6.9 billion by 2010 and to 8 billion by 2025 but the differences in growth rates between countries, regions and continents is substantial. Virtually all of that increase will occur in the developing countries. The population will become increasingly urban, with the number of urban dwellers surpassing rural dwellers for the first time in history. Not only will the total demand for food be greater than it has ever been, but the nature of that demand will be different. In many countries, changes have been taking place in dietary habits, as well as in methods of food production, processing and marketing, while international trade in raw commodities and processed foods has also grown substantially. The increases in world population and urbanization are critical issues in terms of food availability, access to food and nutritional well-being; more people will require more food, more goods, more services and more employment opportunities. With a projected world population of 8.3 billion people by the year 2030, there is considerable concern about the ability to provide for this number of human beings, and to meet their changing demands, in an adequate and sustainable way.

SEAFOOD DEMAND GROWTH

Worldwide demand for more seafood is not only due to population growth but also because the per capita consumption of seafood is expected to grow by more than 50 percent between now and the next 20 years. In recent years there has been a shift in food consumption habits resulting in increased demand for fish and related products. Increasing awareness about health benefits offered by seafood against red meat is also a major demand growth driver. FAO says that by 2030 the addition of the two million more people to the world population will mean that aquaculture will need to produce nearly double the quantity produced in 2005 just to maintain the current per capita consumption levels.

Consumption of both high and low value food fish is expected to grow in the developing world. On the other hand, in developed countries, the market is expected to be stagnant. Per capita consumption is expected to remain unchanged in sub-Saharan Africa and developed countries and is anticipated to increase in many developing countries. Growing domestic demand within developing nations from fish and other animal products, urbanization, rise in income level and population growth are the primary factors behind the growth of net exports from the developing nations. By the end of the next decade or so, India, Latin America and China are projected to be the net exporters. Expansion in seafood markets is instrumental in narrowing the gap between supply and demand.

It is also to be emphasized that not only demand for seafood from aquaculture help reduce hunger and malnutrition by providing food rich protein, fatty acids, vitamins and minerals, it also significantly improves food security by creating jobs and raising income.

Global per capita seafood consumption has increased over the past four decades, rising from 9.0 kg in 1961 to an estimated 16.6 kg in 2005. China has been responsible for most of the increase: its estimated share of world fish production grew from 21 percent in 1994 to 35 percent in 2005 with a per capita consumption reaching about 26 kg. In 2005, about 76 percent (107.2 million tonnes) of estimated world fish production was used for direct human consumption. The remaining 24 percent (34.4 million tonnes) was destined for non-food products, in particular the manufacture of fishmeal and oil.

NARROWING THE GAP

Due to the fact that world population growth is continuing at an increasing rate from the present level of about 7 billion people, the question which is to be answered is: With a fast growing world population and almost stagnant capture fisheries, could aquaculture meet the challenge of narrowing or bridging the gap of seafood consumption to meet the global population growth? This issue has been raised in the last few years by many researchers in governmental bodies as well as by various organizations and research centers concerned. To answer this question the following factors will need to be considered:

• Rate and trends in population growth;
• The possibilities to increase production from capture fisheries;
• The possibilities to use more natural resources for aquaculture;
• Alternative possibilities for additional production offer input-output food production systems such as aquaculture and culture based fisheries;
• The influence of factors, external to the sector but which influence it: such as economic development trends, including trends in purchasing power of various levels of population.

In addition to the above main factors that need answers, government policies as well as the impact of current and potential technological innovations and advances such as partial replacement of fishmeal feeds, disease control, limiting losses, genetic improvement of species farmed, new species, technological/engineering development, environmental concerns, commercial concerns, etc.

In order to find answers to these questions various limitations has to be overcome. These limitations are related to statistical accuracy of time series for population growth as well as for capture fisheries and aquaculture production, lack of usable information on alternative use of resources for aquaculture production, including some economic valuation and lack of reliable models to forecast various related scenarios. Furthermore, on global basis, while there have been improvements in recent years, more information on marketing capacity in major producing countries as a large part of aquaculture production goes to subsistence consumption and to domestic markets. It should be noted however, that the limiting factors are different for the various countries, as well as the blend of supply situation, food preferences, purchasing power and valuation of resources. Therefore, the proper analysis to respond to the questions posted above to assess supply of seafood on a national basis should be a sum of individual countries assessments which should lead to a global assessment.

CONCLUSION

In order to answer the question posed for this article, it is possible to conclude that there is a general consensus that global aquaculture is growing faster than any other branch in food production. Between 1950 and 2005 average annual growth was 8.8 percent. This rate of growth arouses hopes that seafood supply will be safeguarded in the future and is on course of narrowing the gap between supply and demand especially when world annual population growth rate is estimated at 1.4 percent. Furthermore, although world population is growing and capture fisheries is more or less stagnating at a steady level, it has been possible to increase per capita supply of fish and seafood to the current international average of 16.6 kg. This is a remarkable achievement, and it is mainly aquaculture which made this increase possible. This growth in aquaculture is expected to continue in the coming years although there will be considerable disparities with regard to where such growth will take place. Currently the growth is mostly taking place in Asia, especially China. In support of the above conclusion it should be pointed out that continued growth in aquaculture will require certain steps should taken to insure success in a properly managed and responsible fashion. Such general precautions are necessary.

By Izzat H. Feidi